Five actual or potential conflict situations around the world deteriorated in June 2008 and three improved, according to the new issue of the International Crisis Group’s monthly bulletin CrisisWatch, released today.
In Zimbabwe, state-sponsored violence further escalated ahead of the 27 June presidential run-off vote, as the Mugabe regime continued its brutal crackdown to secure victory. Opposition MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai was detained five times over the month, opposition campaigning was repressed and the polling day itself marked by widespread voter intimidation. Up to 200,000 have been displaced in rural violence. Mugabe stood as the sole candidate after Tsvangirai withdrew on 22 June over election conditions. Mugabe's election for a sixth term in office drew strong regional and international condemnation.
June saw a further breakdown in Uganda's fragile peace process amid reports of fresh LRA attacks and threats from neighbouring states to wage an armed offensive against LRA leader Joseph Kony if the impasse continues. Kony called for a resumption of talks late in June but still has not signed the final peace deal since first refusing in April.
Insecurity surged in Nigeria's oil-rich Niger Delta. Militant groups launched a series of large-scale attacks, including the first ever assault on a deep offshore oilfield, after army raids on militant bases in early June. Progress on the much-delayed Niger Delta peace summit faltered, as groups protested President Yar'Adua's failure to meet key preconditions. The situation also deteriorated in Djibouti/Eritrea and Chad.
The situation improved in North Korea, after the government submitted a long-awaited declaration of its nuclear programs on 26 June. In response, the U.S. opened up the possibility of removing the DPRK from its list of state sponsors of terrorism. A new round of six-party talks is expected shortly. China and Taiwan also saw improvement in cross-Strait relations, agreeing to resume key transport ties at the first bilateral talks in over a decade.
The situation also improved in Serbia.
JUNE 2008 TRENDS
Deteriorated Situations
Chad, Djibouti/Eritrea, Nigeria, Uganda, Zimbabwe
Improved Situations
North Korea, Serbia, Taiwan Strait
Unchanged Situations
Afghanistan, Albania, Algeria, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Basque Country (Spain), Belarus, Bolivia, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Chechnya (Russia), China (internal), Colombia, Comoros Islands, Côte d'Ivoire, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ecuador, Egypt, Ethiopia/Eritrea, Ethiopia, Guinea-Bissau, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Israel/Occupied Territories, Kashmir, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kosovo, Kyrgyzstan, Liberia, Mauritania, Moldova, Morocco, Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), Niger, North Caucasus (non-Chechnya), Pakistan, Philippines, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Somaliland (Somalia), Sri Lanka, Sudan, Tajikistan, Thailand, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Western Sahara, Yemen
JULY 2008 OUTLOOK
